By Judy Szablak
The year ahead looks quite promising. Historically, presidential elections have brought about increased real estate activity.
The $20 million sale of 124, 126, and 128 Beachside Ave. (above) skewed the Westport sales numbers for 2011. (CLICK TO ENLARGE) Dave Matlow for WestportNow.com
Coupled with low interest rates and increasing consumer confidence, I expect that 2012 will far surpass 2011’s sales in volume, although it does not appear that any major price adjustments are likely any time soon.
Anticipate a few minor “bumps” to contend with come spring and early summer. That’s when we expect to begin to see Westport’s “shadow inventory” coming on to the market and competing with owners wishing to sell their homes.
The same segments of the market that fared better than others this past year will most likely continue to outperform their much larger and pricier counterparts in the year ahead.
National trends are showing that buyers are opting for smaller homes, and locally, 2011 has shown that buyers have gotten much more conservative as well.
That trend isn’t going away in 2012. The upper end properties are still in danger of continuing their decline in value.
Best bets for selling for top dollar in the year ahead are three- and four-bedroom homes and homes between 2,000 and 3,000 square feet.
Best bets for buyers are where the market has suffered, and they are apt to get a better deal.
At the top of the list would be any home over 7,500 square feet, homes with six bedrooms or more, followed by new construction homes.
Bottom Line: Expect your home to hold its value throughout the year, with only minor price increases or declines in pricing in segmented markets.
The exception—the larger, upper tier properties, where there is a higher risk of continued decline.
This past year’s activity has defined buyer’s conservative sentiment in the marketplace, and is apt to continue in much the same fashion in the year ahead.
2011 recap: We had quite an interesting statistical year for real estate in Westport. Looking at raw year over year figures from 2011 to 2010, one might initially think we suffered an almost 8 percent loss in value last year.
But I would argue against that. In my opinion, the average decline in value is much closer to 4 percent, and this decline was not across the board.
The biggest winners in town were:
+6/ percent – four-bedroom homes
+3.7 percent – 2,501-3,000 sf homes
+2.1 percent – three -bedroom homes
+1.8 percent – 2,001-2,500 sf homes
The homes most affected were:
(-16.0 percent) – 7,501+ sf homes
(-12.5 percent) – 0-1,500 sf homes
(-7.7 percent) – New construction
(-7.6 percent) – Homes with six bedrooms or more
In 2011, the average sale price of a single family home was $1,338,229, and in 2010 the average sales price was $1,445,007.
Looking at those raw figures and doing the math, it looks like an 8 percent drop without delving any further into details. But one particular sale throws the whole equation out of probable proportion.
Westport’s total sales volume of just over $460 million was down by $47 million from 2010. However, that one sale in 2010 represented more than 42 percent of the total difference.
The $20 million sale that occurred in October 2010 on 124 Beachside Ave. is really somewhat of an anomaly, being over 15 times the average sales price, and that must be addressed while gathering information.
It should not be used in determining year over year pricing percentages when calculating differences between the two.
When we take that home out of the mix, the overall decline is much more like 4 percent from 2010. Many towns were hit much harder in pricing and in overall volume.
There were 344 single family home sales in 2011 as reported in our local MLS system, and we fell short by the previous year’s totals by only seven sales.
Let’s count our blessings. While it’s not as good as beating 2010’s totals, our neighboring towns don’t even come close.
Wilton’s unit volume dropped 7.9 percent. Fairfield, Weston, and Norwalk all dropped at least 14 percent, and Easton’s sales plummeted by 49 percent.
The weekly market stats: there are now just 229 homes that are actively on the market.
The average list price of the available homes is $2,212,219, and these properties have been listed for sale an average of 152 days. The median price is now $1,322,500.
The highest asking price for all homes currently on the market is $24,950,000, and the lowest available priced home is $399,000.
Six new listings came on the market in the last seven days, and no homes came back on the market after being under deposit. One property had a price change.
Three properties have gone under the initial deposit stage, which we call CTS, and two properties went into pending status, which means that the conditions have been satisfied, and the property is scheduled to close.
The average price of these two pending properties was $1,537,500 and they were on the market an average of 225 days.
Closings: Four homes were reported as sold in the last week, and they were listed at an average price of $1,234,700. There were 46 status changes in the last seven days.
Condos: There are 13 condominiums that are available, and they have been listed an average of 188 days. Their average listing price is $699,446, and the median price is $549,000.
The highest priced condo in town is listed at $1,495,000 and the lowest offering price is $284,900.
There was virtually no new activity for condos at all this week, except for one closing. The property was listed at $379,900 and was on the market 157 days before it sold. There were four status changes in the last seven days.
Rentals: If you are interested in renting year round, either furnished or unfurnished, there are 61 homes or apartments available.
The median price is $3,612 per month and the average price is $5,442 per month. These year-round rental opportunities have been on the market an average of 93 days.
There are three seasonal rental opportunities available, and they have been on the market an average of 73 days, with an average price of $29,666. The median price is $22,500.
Please note that seasonal rental prices are sometimes listed as an aggregate price for the season, or they can be listed as per the monthly rental cost.
Source: Market Data is compiled from the GFC-CMLS and represents activity through our local MLS system. Private sales are not included in these statistics.
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(Editor’s Note: Judy Szablak of RE/MAX- Fairfield County CT Realtor since 1984 is author of “The Art of Buying or Selling a Home,” and is featured on HGTV’s real estate show, “Desperate to Buy.” Email .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or visit her blog at www.TheCTrealtyBlog.com.
